Yasmeen

Valuing Nature and Risk Reduction: Willingness to Pay for Public Climate Adaptation Measures

Master Thesis - Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU)

• Abstract: This thesis develops a theoretical framework for valuing risk reduction from public climate adaptation measures and linking it to municipal fiscal instruments. Firms are modeled as profit-maximizing agents who decide whether to support adaptation measures by balancing risk reduction benefits against higher business taxation. This yields a tractable expression of willingness to pay (WTP), consistent with random utility theory. Building on this foundation, two empirical strategies are compared: rating-scale models and discrete choice experiments (DCEs). While rating scales capture general attitudes, only DCEs provide welfare-consistent WTP estimates by eliciting explicit trade-offs between protection attributes and fiscal costs. The framework is applied through a survey design incorporating attributes such as effectiveness, design intensity level, measure type, and tax multiplier within realistic financing scenarios. To illustrate fiscal feasibility, calibration exercises translate incremental tax increases into implementable coverage, showing that nature-based solutions offer cost-effective returns alongside grey infrastructure. The framework, methodology, and calibration establish a coherent pathway for incorporating firm-level preferences into local adaptation finance.
• Keywords: climate adaptation, risk reduction, willingness to pay, discrete choice experiment, municipal finance, nature-based solutions.

Cambio climático y agricultura: un análisis sobre el impacto de las variables climáticas sobre el rendimiento agrícola peruano desde el 2015 al 2019

Master Thesis - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú (PUCP) (in Spanish)

• Abstract: Climate change has various repercussions on economic activities, with agriculture being one of the most vulnerable sectors. Therefore, this study assesses the impact of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation, and humidity on the agricultural yield of vulnerable species (coffee, cocoa, avocado, potato, and corn) in Peru from 2015 to 2019. A pooled panel model with fixed effects per district is used to analyze this impact. The data is sourced from the National Agricultural Survey (ENA, by its initials in Spanish) and the public platform of the National Meteorology and Hydrology Service of Peru (SENAMHI, by its initials in Spanish). The results reveal that the impact of climatic variables on Peruvian agricultural yield varies significantly depending on the crop type and natural region. Specifically, it is demonstrated that the climatic variables of minimum temperature and humidity are relevant for the majority of the crops, according to the analyzed region. Additionally, the study finds that avocado, potatoes, and cocoa are vulnerable crops to climate change. Regarding natural regions, Quechua is the most sensitive to variations in climatic variables.
• More information here.

• Book chapter in Spanish found in "Alimentemos el cambio: por una producción y un consumo sostenibles” edited by Schwalb-Helguero, M. & Higuchi, A.
• Available here.

• Paper presented in the XLIII Encontro da ANPAD - EnANPAD 2019 (Brazil).
• Available here.